Constructivism And Progressivism Are My Philosophies Of...

Constructivism and Progressivism are my philosophies of education, I am an art teacher and working to be an art professor and therefore have a progressive attitude with constructing art. As I began learning and traveling down this path to becoming an art educator, my main goal was to inspire and help students to structure themselves on the building blocks of the arts. This however changed as time went on, my passion grew and so did my philosophy of education. At first glance, my philosophy was more so of a constructive nature back in the beginning. That changed as time flew by, learning that every idea and plan led to a change in the mind; learning from students led to a change in my heart. Now I combine the two philosophies to help students to construct and progress with the urge to learn for the next task at hand. Using constructivism as a beginning stage, students would be delving into their work through hands on experience. Working physically with the work connects their experience with their knowledge. This is a common goal of constructivists and therefore a pertinent goal of virtually any art classroom as well as my own. As students continue to grow, they begin building and advancing over time; becoming masters of their trade whether it be art or otherwise allowing them to become the people they were destined to be. Art is a tool to advance every aspect of life, without it there is little room for expansion within a closed mind. It flares the mind and cleanses theShow MoreRelatedJean Piaget And Lev Vygotsky And Vygotsky s Views On Teaching Philosophy And The Children Of The Future Essay1119 Words   |  5 Pageswhile I was doing my observation period in January 2 015. During this period I observed that every teacher has a different learning and teaching philosophy, therefore I would like to describe my own teaching and learning philosophy and by whom I was influenced. In my discussion I will elaborate on the philosopher: John Dewey with his philosophy: â€Å"Progressivism† and other philosophers: Jean Piaget and Lev Vygotsky with their philosophy: â€Å"Constructivism†. I am also going to elaborate on my ideas on teachingRead MoreSoren Kierkegaard And The Existentialist Philosophy1116 Words   |  5 Pages 2. The Existentialist philosophy, started by Soren Kierkegaard, focuses on self-directed education, finding answers within yourself. Students are not graded because all standards come from themselves. This philosophy emphasizes freedom of choice and mind, and that authentic creative thinking leads to true learning experiences (Cohen). The teacher helps students find their passions and understand who they are. Existentialism has never become prevalent in schools because it is difficult to apply inRead MoreMy Personal Philosophy Of Education1335 Words   |  6 Pagestested into a progressivism teaching style in the â€Å"Finding Your Philosophy of Education Quiz.† While I enjoyed learning about the different philosophies and psychological influences of teaching, I prefer constructivism, social reconstruction, and progressivism due to their student-centered learning, hands-on or project based learning style, while making efforts to improve the world around them. I will be discus sing why I chose progressivism, social reconstruction, and constructivism as my preferencesRead MoreEssay on Philosophy Statement1223 Words   |  5 PagesPhilosophy Statement The concept of progressivism was introduced as early as 1875, but it was not until the 1920’s that this movement became more widely known. Credit for the success of progressivism is given to John Dewey, founder of the Laboratory School at the University of Chicago. Dewey began this educational movement of encouraging schools to abandon the essentialist curriculum of the traditional disciplines, and, instead navigate toward a curriculum centered on the experiencesRead More My Philosophy of Education Essay1519 Words   |  7 PagesPhilosophy of Education If I had to pick one view that is most compatible with my own view and learning and teaching it would have to be Constructivism. If I got to choose another one I would go with Cognitive. Constructivism is a view that focuses on the active role of the learner and a Cognitive view sees learning as an active mental process of receiving, remembering, and using knowledge. Both of these views see the role of students as an active role; an involved role. I believe that weRead MoreThe Philosophy Of Education Is Closely Modeled By Jerome Bruner s Constructivism Theory980 Words   |  4 PagesMy philosophy of education is closely modeled by Jerome Bruner’s Constructivism theory. Constructivism theory allows students to choose and convert information, and build hypothesis before making decisions (Bruner, 1960). The model focuses on the construction of learning. Students will pull knowledge created from individual experiences, past knowledge, and values. Personally this gives me the opportunity to encourage students with challenges through learning, discover, and values at the student’sRead MoreAspects of Several Theories of Education956 Words   |  4 PagesThere are several theories of education. There are teacher centered and student centered ones, each one has its pros and cons. Educators use all different kinds of philosophy, many even combine philosophies. .After researching and observing different ways of teaching I have found I like a lot of them but only few aspects of each. I do believe in a student centered atmosphere so Progressivism and Reconstructionism are most logical choices. Progressivism focuses on the students benefits, this theoryRead MoreMy Philosophy : My Personal Philosophy958 Words   |  4 Pagesâ€Æ' My philosophy is to do something I love. I realized that teaching was my passion by experiencing many other things that weren’t. I tried to immerse myself in other topics, such as business but it just did not feel right to me. By pursing education I can do something I love every day. I believe it is very important to have a strong passion and knowledge in the field you choose to follow. From my past experiences, to educate one another, one must have a strong backbone so the students know whatRead More Educational Philosophies Essay1574 Words   |  7 PagesEducational Philosophies Many different ideas of the correct educational philosophy exist. Highly acclaimed psychologists and educators developed these varying philosophies. Each of these philosophies have their strengths and weaknesses and have their positives and negatives in different situations. It is our job as educators to sift through this list of philosophies to find our own style and philosophy. We must research the pros and cons of each philosophy and pick and choose which sectionsRead MoreEssay on My Educational Goals and Philosophy Statement1439 Words   |  6 PagesMy Educational Goals and Philosophy Statement The most important function of education at any level is to develop the personality of the individual and the significance of his life to himself and to others -Grayson Kirk. The teaching philosophy of progressivism focuses on developing the whole child. This philosophy not only teaches the core subject material, but it also allows the teacher to help develop the person the child is going to be. John Dewey, founder

Essay on Ancient Rome and United States Morals and Values

The United States has had an immense decline in morals and values, as well as in public health. Not only that, but it is competing with alarmingly high unemployment, much like ancient Rome was. The United States is defiantly not as stable as it may seem. As a result, it will fall. The decline in moral values in ancient Rome was much like the Unites States today. Crimes made the streets extremely unsafe and gladiator fights were exceedingly popular. This isn’t much different from what we see today. Crime rates in the U.S are continuing to rise, and many people enjoy observing violence, such as gory movies, boxing, and video games that encourage fighting. There were 32,000 prostitutes in Rome, and there are more than 100,000 in the Unites†¦show more content†¦Most died or got sick from the spread of blood from gladiator fights, water disease, or alcohol consumption. Today, alcoholics are more common then they have ever been. People seem to be fond of smoking and drinkin g even though it contaminates their bodies. Additional factors that contributed to diseases in Ancient Rome were malaria, tuberculosis, and typhoid fever (2). Although these diseases may not be common in the United States, there are many others to take their places. For example, there are many sexually transmitted diseases such as Aids, and HIV. There is also swine flu, which is currently escalating and becoming more of a threat. Much like the United States, in Rome, disease was most common from the streets and from people not taking care or themselves. Today, because people do not keep their bodies healthy, obesity and over eating makes these diseases even more common. As a result, this can lead to another kind of disease called diabetes, which can indeed result in stroke, heart attack, and even death (7). Rome went downhill when unemployment became a hazardous issue. It is assumed with the U.S having the same issue, things will be the same. It all started when Latifundias dislodge d farmers out of business. The Latifundias used slaves instead, causing farmers unable to produce cheap since they were actually paying men. Soon enough, farmers had their farms disinherited, or were pushed to sell them. This filled the city with unemployed citizens, which becameShow MoreRelatedThe Classical Style Of The Ancient Greece And The United States1141 Words   |  5 PagesNeo- Classicism in France and the United States The classical style of the ancient Athens, derived from Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome in the 15th century, has had a universal impact on many cultures during previous time periods. The classical period reflected traditional forms focused on symmetry and elegance; it flourished during the time of the Renaissance through artist such as Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo De Vinci. The artists’ main goal was to attain the absolute beauty in their artRead MoreThe United States And The Roman Empire973 Words   |  4 PagesRome was a empire that was respected, by all other empires and kingdoms, back in ancient times. It had an incredibly strong military force, strong political system and a population who knew its place in society. These characteristics can be seen in the United States today. The population of both the United States and the Roman Empire have striking similarities. It appears that both the population of the United States and of the Roman Empire were obsessed with w ealth and each individual person wantedRead MoreComparing the Roman Empire and the United States of America Essay1294 Words   |  6 Pagesâ€Å"While stands the Coliseum, Rome shall stand; When falls the Coliseum, Rome shall fall; And when Rome falls - the World.† Lord Byron. This essay will discuss the similarities of military, economics and systems of government between the Roman Empire of the 6th century BCE and the United States of America of the 20th century. History has revealed that all superpowers fall eventually, although much time has passed since the glory days of Rome we see in 2015 the largest superpowerRead MoreThe Role Of Religion On The Growth Of The Ancient Civilizations908 Words   |  4 Pagesof Religion What role did religion play in the growth of the Ancient civilizations? Religion can invade, conquer, and rule masses of people far more effectively and efficiently than any empire or conqueror. This is not to spark a heated discussion about religions. Its purpose is, to say that, even though it is highly debatable whether religions are false or true, most of them serve a very basic purpose of establishing morals and values. Early religions were used as a source of power and economicRead MoreThe Epic Of Gilgamesh 1523 Words   |  7 PagesMohammad El-haj Mid-Term Humanities Question #1: The Epic of Gilgamesh The story focuses on Gilgamesh who is a king, goddess and man in the ancient Sumerian City state of Uruk. Gilgamesh is presented as the strongest and handsome man in the world but this makes the king feel superior to his subjects.’ Gilgamesh exploits young men through tiresome activities. In addition, Gilgamesh sexually exploits young women in his Kingdom until the residents of Urk cannot take any more and prays to gods for deliveranceRead MoreThe Value of Physical Education to the Ancient Greeks and Romans1574 Words   |  7 PagesThe Value of Physical Education to the Ancient Greeks and Romans Throughout history, society has placed a different value on physical education and sport. The purpose of physical education has changed over different time periods and as a result of ever-changing socio-cultural events. Some civilizations use the practice of physical education to prepare for war, some for profit, and some for a general all-around development. Three ancient cultures are of particular importance to development ofRead MoreEuthanasia and Assisted Suicide1645 Words   |  7 PagesEuthanasia and physician-assisted suicide are actions at the core of what it means to be human - the moral and ethical actions that make us who we are, or who we ought to be. Euthanasia, a subject known in the twenty-first century, is subject to many discussions about ethical permissibility, which date back to as far as ancient Greece and Rome. It was not until the Hippocratic School removed the practice of euthanasia and assisted suicide from medical practice. Euthanasia in itself raises manyRead MoreThe Great Civilizations And Empires Have Changing Political Structure Of The Nation Essay1695 Words   |  7 PagesGreat civilizations and empires have changing political atmospheres based on the development of the nation. Political divisions can form and dissolve quickly based on the focus of an economy or the values of the population. However, civil wars are caused by deeply rooted political divisions that are caused by a lack of compromise and politicians prioritizing other issues besides those plaguing the majority of the empire. Often times, violence and hatred begin to infiltrate the government and compromiseRead MoreThe Most Successful Empire: the Roman or the Mongol? Essay1259 Words   |  6 Pageswhich is now known as the Square Script or the Phags-pa script. Completed at around 1269 AD, the Square Script was a remarkable effort to devise a new written language. Using the fact proven above, it shows that the Mongols had adopted many of the values and politica l structures of the people they conquered and governed. The Romans had a highly efficient and equal systems of law and government. As their empire progressed, the Roman society slowly separated into three main classes for which aRead MoreImperialism And Its Impact On Society Essay1425 Words   |  6 PagesImperialism is a prime example of a group of prey fighting for sovereignty, within this land we come across the lions, otherwise known as the nations who control the prey and victimize them to gain complete dominance. Nations such as Japan, United Kingdome, United States, Germany and France were all living amongst themselves in this word fighting for the ultimate position in the game of imperialism. These leading nations took it upon themselves to find undeveloped nations and control certain aspects; they

Physical Therapists And Physical Therapy Example For Students

Physical Therapists And Physical Therapy What does an individual do if he injures his body or is ill and it does not get better over time? Go to rehabilitation, of course! That is, rehabilitation for the body! These rehabilitation specialists are physical therapists or, as they are sometimes called, â€Å"PTs†. A physical therapist is a person who helps the injured manage their pain and improve their movement. A physical therapist is an individual who goes through a certain amount and type of schooling to obtain a specific degree that makes him eligible to become a qualified physical therapist. The promising job outlook and good pay benefits, combined with possessing certain skills, makes this career in physical therapy a great choice. Physical therapist care for people of all ages with functional problems (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2) that result from illnesses or injuries connected to sports, work, or everyday activities. Physical therapists typically review a patient s medical history and any notes or referrals from surgeons, doctors, or other health professionals. Physical therapists attempt to diagnose a patient s movement by watching how they walk or stand and by listening to their complaints. However, there are different forms of treatment (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2) that are needed, depending on the patient. The physical therapist creates a set plan of care (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2) for a patient that outlines their personal goals and the outcomes expected. Physical therapists use a series of stretching techniques, exercises, and massage therapy for the patient in order to help them increase mobility and to prevent further pain or injury (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2). The physical therapists will evaluate and record the patient s progression, and, if needed, they adopt their findings by modifying a plan of care and trying new treatments (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2) to better heal the injury. Physical therapists also educate the patient and his family about the recovery process and how to handle the challenges that come with it. Physical therapists are part of a healthcare team (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2), supervising the work of physical therapist assistants and aides who help them rehabilitate the patient to the level they need to be or want to be. A career in Physical Therapy requires years of training and education. Some college majors that introduce and lead students to becoming physical therapists are kinesiotherapy, kinesiotherapist, physical therapy/therapist (Physical Therapist Career) and science-based majors, such as Biology. If one wants to become a physical therapist, one must first complete a four- year bachelor s degree program. Once that is complete, the student will enroll in a doctoral degree program, which takes approximately three years to complete. Enrollment is through a program that is approved through the Physical Therapist Centralized Application Service (PTCAS). After the student successfully completes the doctoral program, it is necessary to obtain and complete a clinical internship with an experienced supervisor. All states now require a physical therapist to be licensed (Physical Therapist Career). Once school is complete, physical therapists must pass a national examination that is managed by a nati onal examination agency, and a state examination, administered by the applicable state licensing agency. Applicants are allowed to take the National Physical Therapy exam three times in a twelve-month period. Once an individual has earned a Doctor of Physical Therapy degree, schools recommend that a clinical residency be part of the learning process, in order to focus on special areas of care that set one apart from other physical therapists. (Physical Therapist (PT) Education Overview), Learn as much as possible, because the more one knows, the better physical therapist one can be. (Dessens 2015) .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .postImageUrl , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:hover , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:visited , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:active { border:0!important; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:active , .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u44b9bb08546a29a1238af00aaeafd3fb:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Nutrition And You EssayOnce the stress of education is complete, each individual wants to become successful in his chosen field. People in the field will quickly say that a physical therapist must have certain skills to become a success. If a person wants to become a physical therapist, he must be good at multitasking, communication, and must have the ability to learn as he goes, (Dessens 2015) mainly because of the multiple patients with different problems and personalities that he will encounter. It is very important for a physical therapist to be able to teach the patients that they are not wasting their time, (Dessens 2015) in other words, conveying to the patient that going to therapy is worth the pain and work that is put forth for the patient to get better. Physical therapists should be physically fit, themselves, in order to be able to spend much of their time on their feet, working with patients (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3). Physical therapists must possess good judgment and decision making (Physical Therapy Career) so they can easily evaluate and decide the benefits of potential actions and actions that are most appropriate in a patient s situation. One probably wonders if this is a career worth having. The job outlook or possibility of employment for physical therapy is 34% (much faster than average) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1) for most occupations. Since the advancement of technology, there has been an increase in the use of out-patient surgery (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6) to help test different illnesses and injuries. The existence of active older people, trauma victims, and babies with birth defects permit a greater percentage, which helps create additional demand for rehabilitative care (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6). As a result, physical therapists will always play an important role in helping a patient s recover faster from surgery. Licensed physical therapists are expected to be exposed to good job opportunities in all settings (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6). For example, prospects should consider jobs in acute-care hospitals, skilled-nursing facilities, and orthopedic settings, (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6) and in places where the seniors are treated more. Additionally, the right physical therapist would do well in under-represented rural areas, because most therapists are located in highly populated urban and suburban areas (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6). If a physical therapist is able to obtain one of these rural area positions, he would have little competition. The most important question one wishing to become a physical therapist may ask is, â€Å"How much can a physical therapist earn?† The annual wage for an average physical therapist is approximately $82,390 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5). The demand for physical therapists is increasing, so practitioners may also drive up salaries (Physical Therapy Job Outlook/ George Fox University). The majority of physical therapists work full-time. 1 out of 5 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5) physical therapists work part-time. Additionally, most physical therapists work the normal business hours; although, some do work weekends and even on holidays. Sometimes the physical therapist’s is motivated by the schedules of the patient. A career in physical therapy is a smart decision. Physical therapists are not only paid well with a steady salary (Dessens 2015), but the services of a physical therapist will always be in demand. Why? Because people are human, they get hurt a lot. Individuals will continue to push their bodies to extremes, either in training, work situations or sports activities. Doctors and physical therapists each do their part to make this happen. For a person who loves biology, anatomy, mechanics of body function, and people, this career is the one to choose.

Stereotypes of African Americans in Television free essay sample

Capstone Introduction Stereotypes of African Americans have been around since slavery. Once media got involved it was able to give society a visual as to how other races portrayed them. With television, its becoming more and more vivid of how bad the stereotyping is getting. Now a days some writers of these shows and try to hide the racial remarks, while others are blunt with it and receive no type of punishment for their actions. You do have some sitcoms that will shine a positive light on the African American community, but these shows never last long. The gatekeepers do not want to put a positive image in your head they want you feel a certain way so therefore they come up with shows like Family Guy and South Park that say racial remarks, but Its In a subliminal message. The first television was Invented In 1927, but it took 33 years before an African American actress and actor would be seen on It. We will write a custom essay sample on Stereotypes of African Americans in Television or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The first sitcom was debut In 1950, and It was Bellay. It was based on a white family whose housekeeper was black and overweight. The show was cancelled because the NAACP didnt like the negative message it was sending to America.The first sitcom to be influential for African Americans was the Nat King Cole Show in 1956. This paved the way for show like The Bill Cowboys Show, A Different World, The Fresh Prince of Bell Air, and In Living Color, which are still successful today. Donald Boggles Primetimes Blues, explains the role that African Americans have portrayed all these year in television. Each chapter is broken up into decades and tells the role they have played and how television has mirrored the societys attitude towards African Americans and other blacks.He describes how regardless of the role an African American plays whether they are a lawyer, doctor, cop, drug dealer, or working on wall street you are still an unknown real person. TLS has a physical affect on the African American growing up and they dont realize It. With the help from internet sources and books such as Family Life in Black America, Black Families and The Medium of Television, Racism, Sexism, and the Media, Prime Time Blues I will prove that television has and it still is portraying African Americans in a negative light. Stereotypes of African Americans inTelevision By joneses Shari Jones getting. Now a days some writers of these shows and try to hide the racial remarks, up with shows like Family Guy and South Park that say racial remarks, but its in a subliminal message. The first television was invented in 1927, but it took 33 years before an African American actress and actor would be seen on it. The first sitcom was debut in 1950, and it was Bellay. It was based on a white family whose unknown real person. This has a physical affect on the African American growing up and they dont realize it.

Carbohydrates in Society essays

Carbohydrates in Society essays Among the common fads and trends our society has seen in the past few years, a rather unlikely one would be that of carbohydrates. Carbohydrates provide our bodies with our basic source of energy to carry on day-to-day functions. Americans seem to be fascinated by the role that they play in our diets and the impact that they have on the body. What exactly is a carbohydrate? It is defined as 1. Any various compounds composed of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen such as sugar and starch. All living organisms use carbohydrates as a fuel for energy. To obtain such, as humans we get our carbohydrates from eating foods such as breads, pastas, fruits and vegetables. Our bodies then digest the food and then convert it to glucose C6H12O6. In cellular respiration, cells take the energy that is stored in glucose molecules. The skeleton left behind is used for the synthesis of other molecules like amino acids and fatty acids. Carbohydrates are organized into three different groups, Monosaccharides, Disaccharides, and Polysaccharides. You might ask, What is the difference? Isnt a carbohydrate a carbohydrate? Each one is composed of glucose, but the amounts of glucose are completely different in each one. A Monosaccharide is made from a single glucose molecule. Disaccharides are formed from the linkage of two Monosaccharides. Finally, Polysaccharides are a product of a few hundred to a few thousand Monosaccharides linked together. Often, Polysaccharides are used for protecting a cell. Another common function for a Polysaccharide is that of storage. For storage, plants produce Starch, another form of a carbohydrate. Dr. Robert Atkinson famous for his book, Dr. Atkinsons New Diet Revolution, has sold millions of copies based on his world-renowned diet. He takes the ideas of low carbohydrates in place of low fats and calories, and incorporates high proteins and nutrients for a winning combination that has worked ...

A Man is Not a Widow (Widow vs. Widower)

A Man is Not a Widow (Widow vs. Widower) A Man is Not a Widow (Widow vs. Widower) A Man is Not a Widow (Widow vs. Widower) By Maeve Maddox Last night, not for the first time, I heard someone refer to a man as a widow. Not only did I hear this usage, I saw it headlined across a Powerpoint slide at the presentation I was attending. In English a widow is a woman whose husband has died. A man whose wife has died is a widower. As widow is feminine in meaning, the regional expression widow woman is a tautology. That is, it says the same thing twice. Another tautology inscribed on a subsequent slide at this same meeting was the 100th Year Centennial. A centennial is the observance of a 100 year anniversary. Ex. The city council announced that the town would observe the centennial of its founding. TIP: As I urged in one of my very first articles for DWT, Let the Word Do the Work! Here are some examples of the redundant widow woman usage around the web: I am 28 year old man.I am attracted by a widow woman who is interested to talk with me deeply. What can I do? Quora.com I read in the paper that Jesse James held up a train and when he found out a widow woman who was on the train didnt have any money to give him Book In 2017 a movie titled The Widow Man was released, probably increasing the confusion on peoples minds. The careful writer will observe the distinction and avoid the redundancy when using widow and widower. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Misused Words category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:15 Terms for Those Who Tell the Future55 Boxing Idioms5 Ways to Reduce Use of Prepositions

Discussion Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 45

Discussion - Essay Example Therefore, John is intelligent in Mathematics. It can be observed that the difference between the two reasoning can be defined by its falsifiability. Inductive reasoning permits the possibility that the conclusion of the proposed premises can be incorrect in that it is only a probability and could be disproved by solid evidence in the future. Deductive reasoning, in contrary, does not only rely on the soundness of the proposition but also in its validity. When a hypothesis is valid, it is impossible for it to have a false conclusion. It could lack soundness but it will retain its validity. That is why, Karl Popper’s strategy of disconfirmation is better in a sense that it considers hypothesis according to its falsifiability – a quality that every hypothesis is testable and that if something is wrong among and within its premise, it will manifest itself eventually. 2. The condition clearly involves conflict of interest as well as an ethical dilemma: there is a clear ambi valence on the part of Mary on whether to steal or not; to be altruistic or egoistic. One should remember that there is no justification for stealing. Stealing is morally wrong; nevertheless, to die because of starvation is likewise wrong. Hence, a conflict of interest arises. Mary has no choice to stay morally right at all; she is caught in the middle. Since to steal and to die of starvation are both wrong, one can choose to commit one wrong to prevent the other from becoming morally wrong. She should steal food so that his children don’t die of starvation. That way, there is only one wrong

T-Moblie Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

T-Moblie - Essay Example public, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Poland, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and the Slovakia– including the US Virgin Islands, US, and the Puerto Rico. On the global level, the International subsidiaries of T-Mobile possess total subscribers which are roughly 150 million in number, which makes it the twelfth-largest service provider of mobile phone in the entire world in terms of subscribers. Besides this, T-Mobile bags the rank of the third-largest multinational and stand after Spains Telefà ³nica and UKs Vodafone. T-Mobile, in the year 2010, became the segment of the agreement of joint venture with the UK mobile-network provider of France Telecom, Orange UK. These companies combined and formed the largest mobile-network operator of UK and called itself Everything Everywhere. However, even after forming the joint venture, the Orange brands and T-Mobile go on to co-exist in the markets of United Kingdom. T-Mobile complies with all the laws which are applicable to the state and federal codes of laws and regulations. The management of the company does not indulge in any activity which violates the policies of the company such as non-retaliation, non-discriminatory and non-harassment policies. The unacceptable conduct in the company constitutes of violation of company laws and policies, removal of the property of company without permission, willful or neglectful damage or defacing of the company property, dishonesty, fraud, improper record keeping and all the related activities. Any criminal conviction amongst the employees results in their termination from the company. Besides this, all the secret trade laws and other legal information are kept confidential from others except the concerned parties. The company makes the decisions in the business by giving proper consideration to the social, ethical and legal regulations. The T-Mobile makes returns to the society through the afterschool community outreach program. The company makes efforts to

Thinking About Rewards Essay Example for Free

Thinking About Rewards Essay From the article entitled Dump the Cash, Load On The Praise, why is salary alone not a motivator?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   According to the article, while money has its merits and value, it is often not enough.   Studies show that employees have always valued other things more than money.   These other things include: verbal and non-verbal affirmations and praise of performance; the respect of colleagues and peers; feeling that one is making a contribution; having interesting work, and; getting involved in and being informed about whats happening within the company.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The article explains that recognition is vital in boosting an employees esteem, which would in turn improve his/her performance.   Recognition makes the employee do something special because he/she knows that someone will notice and someone will care.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In contrast, relying on money alone will get the work done.   But it is not necessary the employees best work.   It was also found that in this situation, employees often do their least, and do not go above and beyond expectations.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In addition to money, the article suggests a compendium of motivators praise, recognition, promotion and growth opportunities, and challenging work. After reading Nelsons top ten ways to motivate todays employees list, identify five suggestions from that list that would be effective strategies to use to motivate you as an employee. Explain.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Be willing to take the time to meet with and listen to employeesas much as they need or want.   This is most important to me at my current job, because above all, I need to learn about the job.   Having regular discussions with my boss would not only help me in the learning process, it also gives me a chance to clarify some things, as well as, provide an indicator of my progress.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Provide specific feedback about performance of the person, the department and the organization. Basically, for reasons the same as above.   Only this would also provide me with a glimpse of what values, attitudes and performance indicators are getting more weight.   It also helps me learn more about the company, the people and the dynamics.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Strive to create a work environment that is open, trusting and fun. Encourage new ideas and initiative.  Ã‚   I like to work in an environment where I dont feel the need to conform to everyone elses expectations.   And since I am new, I expect to contribute some systems that I have learned in the past.   I want to be able to try out these systems without any fear of making mistakes, the same mistakes that we all can learn from.   I would like to be able to express ideas and not be shot down without getting heard.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Involve employees in decisions, especially when those decisions affect them. I think its only fair to involve me in decisions about things that would affect me, both on a personal and professional level.   That way, I can share my situation and opinions.   It would also make me feel like my inputs are important, while giving me an opportunity to better understand the issue from the managements perspective.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Give people a chance to grow and learn new skills. Show them how you can help them meet their goals within the context of meeting the organizations goals. Create a partnership with each employee. Probably, the first thing that would make me leave is a sense of stagnation the feeling that I am no longer learning or the things Im doing is getting routine. From the Getting Happy with the Rewards King article, do you agree with Bob Nelson’s position that â€Å"while money is important to employees, thoughtful recognition motivates them to perform at higher levels?† Contrast Nelson’s perspective with that of Alfie Kohn in the For Best Results, Forget the Bonus article where he argues that rewards don’t work.      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I agree with Nelson when he says that money is not everything, and that recognition motivates people to work at higher levels.   I have seen this happen many times at work, with myself, or with my colleagues.   Ive seen it happen in school.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   It is also intuitive, and common sense.   You cant get anything from beating a dead donkey.   In the same manner that you cant get the best work out of a demoralized employee.   Recognition builds the employees self-esteem, and shows him/her what is important in the organization.   It helps him/her create positive relationships with colleagues and superiors.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Nelsons empirical ideas is backed by years of experience in human resources.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Kohn, on the other hand, drives home the point that the effect of rewards is, at most, temporary.   Kohn argues that rewards are more like punishment.   However, unlike Nelson, Kohns arguments are not rooted in research, or empirical observations.   In fact, Kohns ideas run contrary to what Ive seen and learned thus far.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Sure, Kohn cites studies but fails to name them.   I feel that the conclusions derived from these studies (if they do, in fact, exist) are either limited, or erroneous.   Organizational behavior is a complex phenomenon that its difficult to weed out extraneous variables, even in most experimental settings.   Kohn relates the findings found at an unnamed Midwestern company, where an incentive system was taken out. At first, Kohn says, the production went down as expected, but in the long term, production rose to a level at par or higher than before.   Since the study was not actually named, we could only judge it from what Kohn wrote.   Firstly, it seems simplistic that an experience or result at one company should apply to the general population.   Secondly, Kohn failed to eliminate other causes, like the workers learning more about their processes or additional machinery acquired, and other things.   For me, Kohns cited studies seem largely unscientific and and their applications are profoundly limited.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   However, Kohn succeeds in explaining why recognition should work.   Ironically, by comparing recognition and punishment, Kohn showed us that recognition as a catalyst for behavioral change has the same impact as punishment.   We all report to work on time to avoid pay deduction, or a warning.   We dont smoke in areas were not supposed to, because of the company policy, or the indignant stares we get.   Like it or not, punishment works.   By equating recognition with punishment, Kohn undermines his statement that recognition do not and will not work.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   And since Kohn cites studies from social psychology, it would be interesting to know what Kohn thinks of conditioning theorists like Skinner who expoused the importance of positive reinforcement on behavior changes and learning.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In the end, all Kohn is arguing is the value of the reward involved, not the recognition system per se.   For Kohn, a reward of higher value would make recognitions impact more felt. Intuit is cited as among the Fortunes Best Companies (#33 on the 2007 list, up from #78 in 2004) to work for because they have a corporate culture that is always focused on employee recognition. Go to the Intuit website and review their rewards program for employees http://web.intuit.com/about_intuit/careers/rewards/ .   In light of our readings on rewards, what is your assessment of the Intuit rewards culture?      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   If I were to serve as a judge for Fortunes Best Companies to work for, Intuit would jump from #33 to at least the top 20.   For one, Intuit has an enviable benefits package, including medical, vision and dental plans, a flexible spending account benefit, stock plans, assistance and referral programs.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   While the Web site is largely silent on non-cash recognition, it can be inferred that the company cares for its employees.   Its disability insurance that pays up to 70% of the employees basic salary promotes a sense of security for its labor force, in the event that something bad happens to them.   The companys openness and assistance in their employees savings, as well as its assistance programs, also speaks about the companys concern. The company is also committed to help employees learn formally with a tuition assistance programs.   Furthermore, the company even pays for their employees gym memberships and fitness classes.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   More than that, the company says on its Web site that employees are recognized through cash and non-cash incentives.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Intuit is right up there on the list of best companies to work for because of all these.   They are right on target and on track with recognizing their employees, making them a company to be emulated by others. How does your organization stack up with respect to creative and fun work environments with respect to reward systems?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I have just been recently hired as a contact representative by the Social Security Administration.   Even though I am still in training, I find that my job is   fulfilling based on what my colleagues tell me and what I see from them.   First off, I have a supervisor who provides me regular feedback on my performance and how I am progressing, and even the things that I need to address or learn more.   I work at an office that specifically values respect among its workers and to its callers.   There is actually a written policy that says each employee must treat other employeesand customerswith respect, regardless of their race, gender, age, religion, etc.   My colleagues are actually very friendly and helpful.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I also find that the very nature of my worktalking to a variety of people about their social security, their checks, and their benefitsis stimulating for me.   There is always a new case with new circumstances every single day.   I am grateful that my colleagues also find time to share their stories and their work.   At various points of the day, we share tips on how to handle irate callers, or how to best process a complaint, or what to do in a particular instance.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Even if the SSA is a very structured organization, I find that we have leeways in handling calls.   We actually can use our own methods in answering calls and getting the information to the callers.   Its not that stiff.   The quality of your work is based on how clearly youve communicated the information to the caller, and how you handled the caller.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Whats more, I work with people that puts a high value on camaraderie.   Just yesterday, a colleague celebrated her birthday, and everybody chipped in to buy her a big chocolate cake, while our department boss gave her a bouquet of flowers.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I think Im going to like it there. In your experience, is employee recognition a scarce commodity in organizations? Why is that so?      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   No. I think I have been very lucky to be involved in organizations in the past that respected and valued diversity and initiative.   In a way, I have been praised for my work.   I have also been objectively reprimanded for lapses.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I am currently in an organization that strives to build relationships among its people.   The same organization that is very clear with what it aims to achieve, and rewards the people who makes it happen.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Its not really just about commissions, or big fat incentives.   Recognition comes in various forms.   My personal criteria is that if it makes you feel warm all over, if it boosts your self-esteem, if it makes you want to repeat your behavior, then thats recognition. What is the most important lesson you took away from these readings and discussion?      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   My most important lesson is that while recognition has profound positive effects on the employeesand ultimately, the organizationit doesnt have to be expensive.   Recognition could be as simple as a pat on the back, a good word, or singling out the employee/s who did good and thanking them.   Recognition does not have to be elaborate, it just have to be apparent.

Man Against God in Moby Dick Essay -- Moby Dick Essays

Man Against God in Moby Dick Thee Works Cited "God, God is against thee, old man; forbear! 'tis an ill voyage! ill begun; ill continued..." (418). Humanity has embarked on a journey. A journey of choice that will lead into the end days; one which will determine mankind's fate and weave the mat of life to completion. Humanity, like Captain Ahab, has chosen to follow the direction of his own desires rather than reason and faith. Refusing to hear the voice of reason, man has seared Starbuck-his conscience and morals-to "a lipless, unfeatured blank" (459). Following the desires of the flesh, he has thrown out the compass and declared himself "lord of the level loadstone" (425). And like Captain Ahab, humanity will suffer the consequences of "all his fatal pride" (425). Every person who lives believes he posses the power, the free will, to weave his mat of life, to make the designs come out the way he wishes. Yet, when the time of decision comes, every one will let "the ball of free will [drop] from [his] hand" and follow Captain Ahab in pursuit of the heart's passion and the mind's fantasy. The pressure of Ahab's voice drives the crew to compliance, and only Starbuck dares to stand up to him. But even Starbuck's courage wavers and he is unable to hold his ground. Seared into white noise, his silent pleas for obedience are seldom heard over Ahab's commands. For "[s]uch was the thunder of [Ahab's] voice," that "the men sprang over the railing" and into the sea (187). Ahab realizes the power he has and declares it many times outright. Yet he does not respect the authority granted to him and abuses it by taking his ship and crew on a voyage of revenge and "foolish, impious ... ... of God. Mankind has chosen to ignore the orders of the ship owners and the warnings of the compass, and like Ahab, has declared himself "immortal on land and sea" (411); therefore, "[I]nspite of all that mortal man could do," there will be "[r]etribution, swift vengeance" (468). "Remember therefore from whence thou art fallen, and repent, and do the first works; or else I will come unto thee quickly, and will remove thy candlestick out of his place..." (381) Works Cited The Holy Bible. Concordance and end-of-verse references ed. by Russell L. Surls. The Authorized King James Version. Iowa, World Bible Publishers, 1986. Melville, Herman. Moby Dick: An Authoritative Text; Reviews and Letters by Melville; Analogues and Sources; Criticism. A Norton Critical Edition. Ed. Harrison Hyford and Hershal Parker. New York, W. W. Norton and Company, Inc. 1967. Man Against God in Moby Dick Essay -- Moby Dick Essays Man Against God in Moby Dick Thee Works Cited "God, God is against thee, old man; forbear! 'tis an ill voyage! ill begun; ill continued..." (418). Humanity has embarked on a journey. A journey of choice that will lead into the end days; one which will determine mankind's fate and weave the mat of life to completion. Humanity, like Captain Ahab, has chosen to follow the direction of his own desires rather than reason and faith. Refusing to hear the voice of reason, man has seared Starbuck-his conscience and morals-to "a lipless, unfeatured blank" (459). Following the desires of the flesh, he has thrown out the compass and declared himself "lord of the level loadstone" (425). And like Captain Ahab, humanity will suffer the consequences of "all his fatal pride" (425). Every person who lives believes he posses the power, the free will, to weave his mat of life, to make the designs come out the way he wishes. Yet, when the time of decision comes, every one will let "the ball of free will [drop] from [his] hand" and follow Captain Ahab in pursuit of the heart's passion and the mind's fantasy. The pressure of Ahab's voice drives the crew to compliance, and only Starbuck dares to stand up to him. But even Starbuck's courage wavers and he is unable to hold his ground. Seared into white noise, his silent pleas for obedience are seldom heard over Ahab's commands. For "[s]uch was the thunder of [Ahab's] voice," that "the men sprang over the railing" and into the sea (187). Ahab realizes the power he has and declares it many times outright. Yet he does not respect the authority granted to him and abuses it by taking his ship and crew on a voyage of revenge and "foolish, impious ... ... of God. Mankind has chosen to ignore the orders of the ship owners and the warnings of the compass, and like Ahab, has declared himself "immortal on land and sea" (411); therefore, "[I]nspite of all that mortal man could do," there will be "[r]etribution, swift vengeance" (468). "Remember therefore from whence thou art fallen, and repent, and do the first works; or else I will come unto thee quickly, and will remove thy candlestick out of his place..." (381) Works Cited The Holy Bible. Concordance and end-of-verse references ed. by Russell L. Surls. The Authorized King James Version. Iowa, World Bible Publishers, 1986. Melville, Herman. Moby Dick: An Authoritative Text; Reviews and Letters by Melville; Analogues and Sources; Criticism. A Norton Critical Edition. Ed. Harrison Hyford and Hershal Parker. New York, W. W. Norton and Company, Inc. 1967.

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module OutlineTHE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Certainty Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More Complex Decision Tree Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS SOLVED PROBLEMS INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES DISCUSSION QUESTIONS PROBLEMS INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS CASE STUDIES: TOM TUCKER’S LIVER TRANSPLANT; SKI RIGHT CORP. ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY L EARNING O BJECTIVESWhen you complete this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE: Decision trees and decision tables Highest monetary value Expected value of perfect information Sequential decisions DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN: Decision making under risk Decision making under uncerta inty Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatter’s decision was a tough one. Which of his new Kentucky lease areas—Blair East or Blair West—should he drill for oil? A wrong decision in this type of wildcat oil drilling could mean the difference between success and bankruptcy for the company.Talk about decision making under uncertainty and pressure! But using a decision tree, Tomco Oil President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potential net profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became much clearer. Says Blair, â€Å"Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of planning these decisions and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. †1 â€Å"The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. Overcoming it is his mission. † John McDonaldOperations managers are decision makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers must understand how decisions are made and know which decision-making tools to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of both people and companies depends on the quality of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the most powerful software firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so many accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is not working there anymore.THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A â€Å"good† decision—one that uses analytic decision making—is based on logic and considers all available data and possible alternatives. It also follows these six steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a model—that is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each alternative solution based on its merits and drawbacks.Select the best alternative. Implement the decision and set a timetable for completion. Throughout this book, we have introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on careful decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, â€Å"Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures,† Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Maryland 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S â€Å"Management means, in the last analysis, the substitution of th ought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. † Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of them—decision tables and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKINGRegardless of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and â€Å"states of nature. † The following notation will be used in this module: 1. Terms: a. Alternative—a course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorrow). b. State of nature—an occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrow’s w eather). Symbols used in a decision tree: a. —decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected. b. —a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature will occur. 2. To present a manager’s decision alternatives, we can develop decision trees using the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their correct and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. Example A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and marketing backyard storage sheds.Undertaking this project would require the construction of either a large or a small manufacturing plant. The market for the product produced—storage sheds—could be either favorable or unfavorable. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in F igure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable market 1 Unfavorable market Favorable market 2 Unfavorable market no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct small plant Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision tableA tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may also develop a decision or payoff table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a monetary value. This is called a conditional value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the left side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that conditional values (payoffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L SWe construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following i nformation. With a favorable market, a large facility will give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net loss will occur. A small plant will result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments: †¢ †¢ †¢ Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision m aking under certainty Decision Making Under UncertaintyWhen there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we cannot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision methods: Maximax A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal probability to each state of nature. Maximax—this method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.First, we find the maximum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an â€Å"optimistic† decision criterion. 2. Maximin—this method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every altern ative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible loss, it has been called a â€Å"pessimistic† decision criterion. . Equally likely—this method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The equally likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decision table analysis under uncertainty Given Getz’s decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF NAT URE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (â€Å"maximax†) and pessimistic ones (â€Å"maximin†). Maximax and maximin present best case–worst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothingTYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equally likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)The expected payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.This figure represents the expected value or mean return for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an alternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager believes that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market; that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3): 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV decision criterion, Getz would build the small facility. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORA BLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing research firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.In other words, it will change Getz’s environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should the operations manager hire the firm to make the study? Even if the information from the study is perfectly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI pla ces an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, refer to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, â€Å"Statistical Review for Managers. † 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such perfect information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, then he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMVExpected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and multiply its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected value under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state o f nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for information—that is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.The procedure is outlined as follows: 1. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"favorable market† is â€Å"build a large facility† with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"unfavorable market† is â€Å"do nothing† with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100 ,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus: EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to display in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include sequential decisions and states of nature.When there are two or more sequential decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most commonly used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with less effort and in greater depth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syn copation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps: 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. Structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is done by working backward—that is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the tree’s branches.The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parentheses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. T his represents the branch from the decision node to â€Å"construct a large plant. † The EMV for node 2, to â€Å"construct a small plant,† is $40,000. The option of â€Å"doing nothing† has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getz’s case, a small plant should be built.EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) (–$180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) –$ 20,000 –$180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) (–$20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciat e a graphical display of a tough problem.When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are much more powerful tools than are decision tables. Let’s say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about building a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a cost of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.Getz’s new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. Take a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. This procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcom es, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getz’s first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.If it chooses not to do the study (the lower part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getz’s second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getz’s tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,200 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la –$190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 Small 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant –$ 30,000 No pla nt –$ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey –$87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 –$190,000 $ 90,000 –$ 30,000 –$ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs ShownThe short parallel lines mean â€Å"prune† that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 –$180,000 $100,000 –$ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of smaller treesâ⠂¬â€ start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be negative. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.Don’t forget, though: There is a chance that Getz’s $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remai ns a 22% chance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000—the cost of the marketing study—has been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start calculating the expected monetary value of each branch.We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back toward the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 000) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200—versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the study—the best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant; if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODUL E A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smithson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facility—and boost its profits—if it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the effect on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Don't do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Don't do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Don't do it No FIGURE A. 4 I Smithson’s Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source: Modified from Constance E. Bagley, â€Å"The Ethical Leader’s Decision Tree,† Harvard Business Review (January–February 2003): 18–19. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in management’s best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question â€Å"Is it ethical? † will be no.Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch â€Å"Is it ethical not to take action? † If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex: What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-saving drug at a lower cost around the world?Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? No—but it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniques—decision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. Problems in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect in formation (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyzing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. Compute the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B8:C8). = MIN(B8:C8) = MAX(B8:C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8:G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8:B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B14:C14) = E14 – E11 PROG RAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the decision tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small sho p Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A SolutionD E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 Daily demand for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to stock 5, 6, or 7 cases. Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Internet Homework Problems †¢ Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM †¢ PowerPoint Lecture †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Excel OM †¢ Excel OM Example Data File †¢ POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between dec ision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect information? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using: Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,0 00 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station.Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000.Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each ou tcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at Hard Rock Cafe’s annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note: OM; and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a sensitive new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss’s expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000.Determine the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardner’s software firm: DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 MEDIUM DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosin g a process that is inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group technology. Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments: poor, fair, good, and excellent.The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?Julie Resler’s company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet incre asing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the foll owing probability model: Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dak ota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000.At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table: ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Don’t build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technolo gy is used to fill the order.A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Loomba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The e xpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. Construct Joseph’s decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is thinking about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old market ing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysis of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable; he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorabl e market if the marketing research results are not favorable.Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probabil ity of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide: The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase land to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in anticipation and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.Hard Rock will sell the la nd if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices: (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros): SITE X Current purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery â€Å"scratch-off† games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot: A, B, or C. A can reveal â€Å"Loser, † â€Å"Win $1,† or â€Å"Win $50. † B can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Take a Second Chance. † C can reveal â€Å"Loserâ⠂¬  or â€Å"Win $500. † On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $1. † E can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $10. † The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.Finally, the probabilities at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. Use proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional homework problems: A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tucker’s Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker ’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker’s age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Q uestions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY Ski Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, Bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.As an amateur inventor, Bob was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, Bob knew he could use his creative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bob’s biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more im portant than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market should be 40%.Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a co ntrol pad worn on a skier’s arm or leg.Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didn’t want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.The company had extensive experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market wou ld mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finishedSki Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have Celestial Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.If the market was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bob’s final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source: B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N. J. : Prentice Hall (2006). Re printed by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies: †¢ Arctic, Inc. : A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. †¢ Toledo Leather Company: This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. â€Å"The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 5–14. 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